Friday, February 26, 2010

Can $435 Million Really Be 35% of An African Country's Entire GDP?

Jason Anthony appears to be the most intelligent of the Thunder Oil corporate finance group, so when he says in The Bonus: "Thunder Oil accounts for something like 35% of the Kanbian economy for God's sake," the first reaction is that can't possibly be right. Thirty-five percent of a country's entire GDP?

Kanbia is, of course, a fictional African country, whose miserable GDP is said to be the result of exploitation by European countries for centuries and now by Thunder Oil. So the immediate question is whether there is any reality to such a country actually existing in Africa today.

It turns out one does not have to look very far. Take Berundi, for example, a country formed five centuries ago and occupied (plundered?) during the Twentieth Century by Germany and Belgium. Berundi today has roughly a GDP of $720 million (that's all of $90 per person annually). And as we know, in The Bonus Thunder Oil's annual revenue was $435 million from Kanbia, more than half of Berundi's total GDP.

Is Berundi an aberration? How about Eritrea a country just north of Ethiopia, the cradle of civilization. It's GDP is about $950 million, still less than Kanbia's apparently. But Eritrea is in the Horn of Africa, not exactly where The Bonus story takes place. Portuguese Guinea, now independent and called Guinea-Bissau, however, is right on the West African coast along an expanse of the Atlantic Ocean (as is Kanbia) and has had plenty of European intrusion over the years (as has Kanbia). The GDP of Guinea-Bissau is $240 million (around $160 per capita), a far cry from the annual revenues of Thunder Oil from exploiting the waters off the Kanbian coast. (For a little contrast, you might check out the GDP of a country like Switzerland, which currently stands at approximately $488 billion - or about $68,000 per capita.)

Of course, Kanbia is not Guinea-Bissau, and was not even modeled after her in any way. The point is, though, that there are countries today in Africa whose GDP does not even remotely approach the annual revenues of individual foreign companies who continue to do business in those regions. Is it far-fetched to think that a world class oil company like the fictional Thunder Oil might be taking some advantage there?
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